Declining Membership
Posted byLifeWay has released the compiled statistics from the most recent Annual Church Profile, and they show that, for the first time, the Southern Baptist Convention has seen a decline in total membership over the previous year.
Some suggest that this decline has the potential to be a good sign, if it could be determined that it is the result of churches working toward the ideal of a regenerate membership. Others, predictably, would have us believe that the sky is falling and the apocalypse is at hand, and that the blame lies with those who would resist the sacrifice of our distinctives in order to be accepted by the burgeoning ecumenical mindset pervading much of the wider evangelical world.
But in reality, it is too early to tell precisely what these numbers mean. Dr. Ed Stetzer has provided some analysis on his blog. There are some rather broad assumptions contained within Dr. Stetzer’s post, and in the comment section of that blog post, Dr. Malcolm Yarnell has offered some challenges to those assumptions that will be helpful for us to consider as we seek to place this news in its proper context. To that end, I encourage everyone to read Dr. Stetzer’s post, as well as Dr. Yarnell’s comment, which is reproduced below:
Dearest Ed,
Thanks for this post. As always, you do provoke thought. However, there are so many assumptions that have gone into your statements, that it is impossible to evaluate them with any depth. Perhaps you would be willing to spell out your thoughts more with detail. For instance, consider these five issues raised in your post:
- Why should we assume that the Conservative Resurgence has not led to a Great Commission Resurgence in the hearts of conservative Southern Baptists? Perhaps there is a passion for the Great Commission that is already existing in our churches. Perhaps the churches are busy proclaiming God’s Word, but the Spirit in His sovereignty has not yet seen fit to bless us with the numbers we desire to see. Perhaps our focus should be less upon meeting statistical goals and more upon simply being faithful with what responsibilities we have been granted.
- Exactly who are these “young leaders” that we are losing? Are they the leaders that God has brought to the fore amongst our churches? If so, have their churches left the SBC? Moreover, may not the elevation of these “young leaders” actually be the very source of the “young vs. old” division that is decried? Moreover, in promoting young leaders, do we not take the risk of downplaying the elders who the churches have chosen to lead them?
- Exactly who among our churches has lost their focus upon the gospel? Is the implication that somehow our churches have forsaken the gospel? How do we verify this rather sharp claim, which, if true, indicates that our churches are no longer, in essence, churches? Needless to say, this is perhaps the most troubling issue raised, for without the gospel, we have no hope of salvation.
- When did we ever decide that our theology was “in order”? Can any of us really claim to have reached perfection in the development of doctrine, apart from standing complete in our salvation before the heavenly throne? Should we not always be about promoting the truth and defending the faith? Is the theological task ever truly finished this side of the Second Coming?
- Exactly what “parameters” have been narrowed in the SBC? Have we not, at our best, been about preserving the faith once for all delivered to the saints? Who, among us, are busy about narrowing parameters of cooperation? Could it be that the parameters have stayed the same but those parameters are no longer appreciated by everyone?
Thanks, my old friend, for raising these important issues. I look forward to our clarifying theology and practice together as Southern Baptists who believe that this is a truly great convention of churches. Let us be the best disciples we can be to the Lord who died on a cross and rose from the dead for us by going, making disciples, baptizing, and teaching all things that Christ has commanded us, even when those things are resisted, even when those very things bring us to frank yet friendly conversations.
In Christ,
Malcolm
75 Comments
April 24th, 2008 at 11:23 am
dr. yarnell is a smart man. a very smart man. he asks some very legitimate questions…questions that i would like to see ed stetzer and the outpost crowd answer.
david
April 24th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
David,
Your comment appears to relate Ed Stetzer and the “Outpost Crowd.” We need to avoid guilt by association. Ed Stetzer works for us – the convention – not for the Outpost guys) and is merely pointing us to a fact that confirms what Thom Rainer and others have been proclaiming for years: the SBC is stagnant evangelistically.
Chris
April 24th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
In the introduction to his book The Baptist Way, Stan Norman addresses the excellent question as to whether our more pragmatically oriented brethren equate numbers with church health. Norman asserted that they sometimes do, and that they do so without sufficient foundation. I think that Norman is onto something there, and that a great many of our people ought to read his essay and his book.
April 24th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
007:
I really wish you would give some thought before you type comments–you seem to come off as always attacking someone, especially if you do not like what they are saying, just as in comment #1.
Make your point, don’t compliment and then attack.
April 24th, 2008 at 1:10 pm
I don’t know who Dr. Yarnell is…but it sure seems like he is standing on his head and is suggesting everything else is simply upside down or something.
Unbelievable…does he serve as a deacon in a local church by any chance? Only deacons employ such logic.
April 24th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
Fox,
That’s a fabulous example of ad hominem. Would you like to actually interact with what Dr. Yarnell has said, or are you just here to make fun?
April 24th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
Maybe we should all make a special attempt to grasp the spiritual implications of what brother Ed is trying to communicate. I would think that he of all people would agree that you can make some stats say whatever you want. However, it is evident that there is a trend here that we should be concerned about.
Dr. Yarnell makes some good points that I think are worthy of discussion, but should this be the first response when we read something like this? Bart Barber as of late asks some good questions on Ed’s site as well.
Let’s be honest, do you really believe that a significant percentage of churches have tightened thier requirements for membership or have ceased from reckless practices? I would be surprised if that would prove to be the case. The awareness level of these issues has only come to the surface over the last few years.
I am willing to take what Ed said at face value and agree. Yes, let’s be humble enough to move beyond our factions to take a hard look at ourselves. I’m not suggesting that we stop defending the truth, but we should all long for God’s intervention in our churches and the Convention as a whole.
TBH
April 24th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
Travis,
Ed’s post contains a symptom, a diagnosis, and a prescription. If I read you correctly, you urge us to acknowledge that the symptoms do indeed exist and that they most likely are connected with some disease or another. To paraphrase you, we ought not to be like some of the people we’ve all met who stubbornly refuse to go to a doctor until it is too late.
Do I read you correctly?
If so, it might encourage you to know that the founders of this blog and the author of this post (as well as the author of this comment) agree that we live in a critical moment in Southern Baptist life (correct me where I misrepresent you, fellas). We might highlight different symptoms than Ed’s as the most troubling ones, would doubtless arrive at a different diagnosis, and absolutely have another prescription.
Yet, if the concern is that somebody somewhere might be saying that the patient is as healthy as a horse, I think that you can rest at ease regarding these gentlemen.
April 24th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
Bart,
I think I have read you all enough (both here and elsewhere) to know where you stand. I am not troubled over anyone’s core convictions here.
Yes, you have read me right. Let’s acknowledge the symptoms together before we appear so defensive on the diagnosis and the prescription. Ed is not the only person who has made a statement about our churches being asleep. It’s not necessary to agree with everything that he has said. I’m not suggesting that we say “let’s just forget about it” and pretend we have no legitimate disagreements.
But can we not at least acknowledge before we begin to parse words that there is something to pray over here, maybe something to weep over?
TBH
April 24th, 2008 at 2:35 pm
I’ll be happy to interact with Dr. Yarnell’s points.
#1 “Why should we assume that the Conservative Resurgence has not led to a Great Commission Resurgence in the hearts of conservative Southern Baptists?”
Well, because baptisms are at their lowest level in decades, they have fallen 3 straight years, and 7 out of 8. Are we now not baptizing people that come to Christ? Are we to assume that people are coming to faith without being baptized? Isn’t that a baptist distinctive? It is curious to see Dr. Yarnell defending the possibility of a Great Commission Resurgence without the corresponding evidence of increased baptisms.
#2 “Exactly who are these “young leaders” that we are losing?”
Dr. Yarnell works in a seminary, so he likely has a different perspective. In the circles that I move in here in the Deep South, I am consistently one of the youngest pastors, by far. I am 33. Almost everyone in every meeting I go to is at least 10-15 years older than me. People think I am a youth minister. I am just not seeing many pastors my age outside of certain gatherings, and after hitting my head against a wall regarding SBC issues over the past 2 years, I have lost all desire to participate except for in my association. Also, our churches are rapidly aging, which is common knowledge.
#3 “Exactly who among our churches has lost their focus upon the gospel?”
When the member to baptism ratio is 47:1 and around 10,000 SBC churches did not baptize ONE person in 2005, then at the very least, we have lost the proclamation of the gospel. I do not think that it is much of a stretch to say that we have lost the gospel as well, or we are in the process of losing it. Luke 24:45-49 shows us that the message and the mission are connected. We have birthed a lot of spiritual babies who never really grasped the implications of the gospel because we often do not preach the full message of the gospel of the Kingdom. We preach forgiveness of sins, but Jesus brought more than that. Apparently, we struggle to understand the ministry of Jesus and the message that He brought us, otherwise, I think that we would bear more fruit.
#4 “When did we ever decide that our theology was “in order”?”
I agree with Dr. Yarnell on this point. We see through a glass darkly and we should be constantly reforming as we continue to be shaped by the Word of God. Amen. However, this is an interesting approach from one of the foremost proponents of the “Baptist Identity” movement. I have gained the impression that a position was correct primarily because it was the traditional Baptist tradition. Of course, that position is equated with what the Word says. Fair enough. The problem is that we have struggled to have real discussions regarding what the Bible says because people have quickly thrown out the trump cards of, “That is not what Baptists believe,” and, “If you don’t like what Baptists believe then leave.” That type of attitude has hindered real biblical discussion on issues. If Dr. Yarnell agrees that we should continually bring out traditions and beliefs to the Bible afresh, then I agree with him wholeheartedly. The Word is infallible, though we are not.
#5 “Exactly what “parameters” have been narrowed in the SBC?”
Okay, he can’t be serious, can he? That is what we have been debating for over two years. The IMB policies on ppl and baptism were not on the book pre-November 2005. Those positions have never been agreed upon by any consensus of Southern Baptists and they are not in the BF&M. Pre-November 2005, those restrictions against missionaries were not there. They were not known as being the Southern Baptist position on these issues. Perhaps they are the positions of Dr. Yarnell, so he believes that all good Southern Baptists agree with him. I must tell him that is not the case. I can provide as much anectdotal evidence as he that there are MANY Southern Baptists who disagree. Yes, parameters for cooperation have been narrowed. No, those are not the traditional Baptist positions in any sense of what has been articulated confessionally.
Almost every point of Dr. Yarnell’s caused surprise on my part. I pastor a Southern Baptist church in central Alabama. The SBC that I see is very different from the one that he sees from the hallowed halls of SWBTS.
April 24th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
Numbers are a tricky thing. We can make them say many different things, and it is dangerous to try to use them as monitors of the favor of God.
On the other hand…In both the OT and the NT, the people of God prospered and grew when they were under the divine favor. In Acts, there was constant growth, numerically.
If we are plateaued (for about 15 – 20 years) and now declining (if this is a trend, not an aberration) we would be foolish to whistle “Dixie” past the signs of trouble.
I appreciate Ed Stetzer’s analysis. Malcom Yarnell asked good questions on the counterpoint. We need to discuss, debate, and pray about what these numbers mean and where we are headed.
What we do not need to do is ignore the problem and rearrange the deck chairs.
April 24th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
Interesting experience. As I signed off my last comment, I noticed a DVD on the Cooperative Program from SBC.net that was sent to me.
It is titled: “Every Number Has a Story: Check out the stories behind the stats.”
Eerie?
April 24th, 2008 at 2:58 pm
Travis,
You said; “Lets be humble enough to move beyond our factions to take a hard look at ourselves.” Huh, OK..
Are you the Travis Hilton who serves as a pastor of a BGAV church in Bluefield VA.?
cb
April 24th, 2008 at 3:25 pm
cb,
It would be better if you communicated with others here. This is not about me, so don’t ask questions you already know the answer to.
TBH
April 24th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
As I read through the comment stream, I keep thinking that something is missing in this discussion. The SBC is not responsible for producing numbers of salvations nor baptisms in our churches – we Pastors are. The CR is not the issue – we Pastors are. Maybe we are too american in our view that it is always best to blame someone else – we as Pastors need to step up and lead and win souls and lead others to do the same. We debate methods and yet do not share. We promote cultural things and yet do not share.
We are the problem – not the SBC nor the CR!
April 24th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
and yes I know that the Holy Spirit is the one who draws people – but we must share and we must lead others to do the same.
April 24th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
brother Wes,
upon reflection…you’re exactly right. the truth is that I don’t have the energy to dive into dealing with each of his points just on their merits. my blogging time has been way down and will be for another 4 or 6 weeks.
I should just hush…cause I don’t appreciate ad homonym all that much…unless it makes me feel better about my opinion…then it’s ok I guess.
I hope Dr. Yarnell did not take my comparing him with a deacon as an insult…cause if he did…that might initiate an entirely new conversation!
April 24th, 2008 at 4:07 pm
I resent being compared with what happened in the 50s. If the average family in my church had 4 children instead of less than two my baptism ration (members to baptisms) would be about the same as the 50s. It isn’t a matter of forgetting the Great commission, it is a matter of the halving of the easiest harvest field.
The only answer for this convention has been, is and will be placing a much higher priority on church starting. The IMB understands this. The churches here in North America on the whole do not.
Tim G. Right on!
Tim B
April 24th, 2008 at 4:27 pm
Tim G.
If I can, I would like to slightly disagree with you. It is not the fault of Pastor’s, it is the fault of the entire Body of Christ. Too many think that evangelism, outreach, and all that “religious stuff” is the “sole” responsibility of the Pastor and/or church leadership. Too many church members are comfortable in their pew getting out of worship services what they want, but not giving anything back to Christ, much less telling others about Him.
I would like to see Lifeway commission a survey on the average number of church members that regularly share the Gospel. If the entire body of each local church was an effective witness for Christ, I believe our baptism numbers would explode.
Ron P.
April 24th, 2008 at 4:34 pm
Just enough time to respond to Travis and Alan in relation to #1…
Our church…before I ever arrived in KC…had taken to heart what our convention has called for in returning to a regnerate church membership…so NO not all reduction in numbers is a decline of evangelistic zeal or purpose and practice. There is obviously a multiplicity of factors involved in this issue and Stetzer is rather quite myopic about this whole issue…much like the Emergent crowd!
Sola Gratia!
April 24th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
ron P
You are correct yet I as a Pastor feel that it is indeed part of my role to lead, encourage, develop etc.. As I travel around to churches, I honestly see this lacking. We are into everything but leading people Jesus.
April 24th, 2008 at 5:01 pm
Scott,
I applaud what’s happening in your church. May your tribe increase. I don’t think the Convention has collectively called for a return to regenerate church membership, though there is no lack of emphasis on it at some of our seminaries.
As I said, I would hope to be proven wrong on this, but it would be surprising to me if we are seeing change come this rapidly in the statistics due to churches like your own.
I don’t think Alan would appreciate being lumped together with me in your comment. He and I differ slightly in what we are saying.
TBH
April 24th, 2008 at 5:34 pm
Travis,
Sorry for the confusion…I meant the MBC and not the SBC. And thanks.
Also, yeah it’s obviously difficult to put two Baptists together isn’t it!
Sola Gratia!
April 24th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
Wes
I find it funny that The Churches in the SBC don’t know that they have a problem with membership in their churches. Most of the people in the Pews know every thing about everyone in their community. They always look on the outside, instead of really getting to know what is on the inside. Baptist churches are known for being unfriendly and prevent fellow Christians from partaking of the Lords Supper, because of their difference. The infighting that has been going on, WAY BEFORE the Internet is world known. The Presbyterian Church (PCA) is the fastest growing Church in the World. “WHY”. Their confession of Faith is the Westminster Confession of Faith, that hasn’t changed in years.
The Presbyterian Church Practices Discipline in their Churches and most of our Baptist Churches don’t know what that means Scripturally. What is the life span of the pastors in the churches? Just how many in your Church are eager to be Discipled? I have given you all much FOOD FOR THROUGHT and I Pray you all take it to Heart and Search Yourselfes.
The only people who have stayed around for our discipleship is churched people.
In His Name
Wayne
es,
April 24th, 2008 at 5:57 pm
Alan,
Just a few notes if I could.
Serving in a seminary cannot be counted against one’s view about this subject unless you are implying Dr. Yarnell is simply an ivory tower book worm with no connection with reality except the printed page.
My guess is, his pulse is not far from young leaders, if we count as young leaders young seminarians. Thus, your response seems a bit circumstantial to me:
Also, you described your experience as “not seeing many pastors my age outside of certain gatherings”. My first SBC was 1982. My experience was precisely what you described as yours. If this has changed much through these years, it’s been a snail’s pace.
There also appears a bit of tension in a couple of responses to Dr. Yarnell.
On the one hand, you deny his questioning the assumption that evidence the CR did not create a GCR is not forthcoming by a series of questions of your own:
Then, interestingly turn right around and assert this in a point of your own about “losing the Gospel: “We have birthed a lot of spiritual babies who never really grasped the implications of the gospel because we often do not preach the full message of the gospel of the Kingdom.”
If we have, as you say, “birthed a lot of spiritual babies”, the consequences of which could prevent baptism, this seems directly opposite what you were attempting to demonstrate with Dr. Yarnell above.
Again you swing the ax of “Baptist Identity” and describe those adherents as hindering Biblcal discussions by allegedly “throw[ing] out the trump cards of, “That is not what Baptists believe,” and, “If you don’t like what Baptists believe then leave.” I’m not sure about whom you are speaking Alan, but I am sure of this: those that I am familiar with who embrace so-called “Baptist Identity do not fear an open Bible. I don’t. Thus, to caricature it as such is simply unfair, my brother.
Nor could you remotely demnostrate that the policies of the IMB–the “narrowing”–is linked to the demise of Baptisms in Stetzer’s study, which, from my reading of your comment, seems, at least the way I’m reading it, to imply such. Is this what you are implying?
Grace, Alan. With that, I am…
Peter
April 24th, 2008 at 6:08 pm
Sorry, Travis, Old Friend,
Obviously it is you and you are right. The number of pastors in the SBC leading their churches to a regenerate church membership is a very small number. Why do you think that to be true? Would you think it had anything to do with their being theological cowards?
Ron P and Tim G,
I think you have touched on the heart of the problem. Both of you are speaking from your perspective roles in the life of a local church. It may very well be that Southern Baptist churches have lost their first love as did a local church which received a personal letter from Jesus many years ago.
The SBC does have many problems for sure. But it is very probable that our churches as a whole have lost the joy of our faith for having left our first love.
It is true that we have fought hard against the deeds of the Nicolatians (liberal theologians and deserters of the Bible and its truth) and that is commendable indeed, but in doing so maybe we have left our first love.
Maybe we should remember therefore from whence we have fallen and repent, and do the first works…..
There is also something to said about our having such a love affair with numbers and “bigness” that we have a problem with real conversion and a valid spiritual growth which is reflective in our constant refusal, as a whole, to address the ever growing problem of an unregenerate church membership.
Unregenerate church members cannot penetrate the lostness of our world with a gospel they do not possess as their own.
Maybe our decline started even before we realized it back when we ( Southern Baptist churches) began to say as did another local body in years past that; We are rich and increased with goods and have need of nothing; and knew not that we were wrethced, and miserable, and poor, and blind, and naked.
Maybe we should collectively go to Jesus in humble repentance and buy from Him gold tried in the fire, that we may be rich and white clothing, that we may be clothed, and that the shame of our nakedness might be covered, and anoint our eyes with eye-salve, that we may once again see our calling, mission and purpose on this earth in the building of the Kingdom of God.
cb
April 24th, 2008 at 6:16 pm
Wayne Smith,
The “food for thought” I have most thought of from you lately is that of which you served up when you said that those seeking to maintain a Baptist Identity desire our wives to be of the STEPFORD WIVES verity. The more I have chewed on that “food for thought” the more distasteful it becomes.
cb
April 24th, 2008 at 6:46 pm
Thanks for engaging, Peter.
My comment about Dr. Yarnell having the majority of his experience in the seminary is not meant to paint him as an ivory tower theolgian. What I mean by that is, he is around young seminarians all the time. His personal experience is likely that there are many young leaders who are coming up in the ranks. He should feel that way – he sees them and trains them. My perspective is that I am not seeing our churches being led by these young pastors where I am. We just have a different perspective.
Regarding the baptism/evangelism issue, it is obvious that we are still leading people to Christ. We are just leading less and less people to the Lord each year, according to baptism numbers. That would speak against the existence of a Great Commission Resurgence. If we were having a great explosion of evangelism, as Dr. Yarnell seems to believe is still a possibility, then why are baptisms decreasing? Of those that we are leading to Christ, it seems that many do not understand the implications of the gospel and are not growing or reproducing. That is my point. I see no tension in my statements, but I confess that I might not be communicating well.
Re: Baptist Identity, I am glad that you do not fear an open Bible. But, I have been told many times that if I disagree with Baptist tradition on any point that I need to find some other group to fellowship with. In reality, I affirm the BFM, but still, I have been told to find another denomination because I don’t think that openness to ppl makes one a pentecostal.
As far as the narrowing of parameters being related to declining baptisms, I do not make that claim. Declining baptisms have been happening for years, long before the narrowing of parameters began. I was just saying that the narrowing of parameters WERE happening, which Dr. Yarnell seems to disagree with.
Thanks for the dialogue.
April 24th, 2008 at 7:53 pm
CB Scott,
I answered you over on David / Valfan007’s Blog.
As to my Stepford Wives comment I was addressing the fact that some people don’t believe Women can be filled with the Holy Spirit and Think for themselves by following the Holy Spirit. We have too many that are Legalist and Pharisees.
In His Name
Wayne
April 24th, 2008 at 9:09 pm
I think it would not be out of the question to ponder that maybe a reason for the decrease is that we are returning to the true preaching of the Gospel. Instead of presenting Jesus as an add-on, maybe He is being presented more often as the Only Way. In other words, it isn’t Jesus + Yoga that is being preached, it is Jesus or Yoga, you must make a choice between the two and the second option does not find much acceptance in our broad-minded world. That and a penny won’t even buy you a piece of bubble gum.
April 24th, 2008 at 9:56 pm
I do hope that as this dialogue progresses we do not fall into the trap we so often do of drawing a line in the sand between Stetzerites and Yarnellis. To do so may be may be more revealing as to our problems and why we are not proclaiming the gospel as we should and could.
I ran into Ed Stetzer first through his writing. I was intrigued. Later I heard him speak, twice. I was fascinated. Finally an occasion came for me to be able to meet him in person. I liked him and still do.
He has a true passion for the church, for ministry people of all callings, and for souls suffering from lostness. He is easy to talk to and he can handle himself well in a raggin’ match. He is interested in other people and is not afraid to ask questions to gain personal insight.
He knows Jesus and believes in the absolute authority of God’s Word. He is approachable and will listen to another person’s opinion. He does his work from a sense of calling and conviction. He has presented his research openly without reservation and should be respected for it. He speaks for his perspective as should anyone in his position. I would rather him not just be a mouth piece for the “company store.” And he is not.
My first experience with Malcolm Yarnell was one of distrust. I considered him to be an elitist engulfed in his own personal self-interest. My reasons for such an opinion are worthless to review here, especially, sense they are totally without merit being based on things not very noble. One of those things being my own stupidity.
In the last two years I have been reading some of what Malcolm has said. I got to hear him speak and I have had the opportunity to have dialogue with him in a few informal settings.
I was wrong about Malcolm Yarnell, terribly wrong…sinfully wrong. I have shared that with him. Malcolm is a follower of Christ, a scholar, a churchman par-excellent, with a passion for God, ministry, doctrine and the souls of lost people. He has true grit and will speak his mind under fire. Such qualities must be admired in a church world filled with yes-men and Boot-Strappers. Malcolm Yarnell is no Baloney-Eater. He really is not a mouth piece for the “company store.” He also does OK in a raggin’ match.
He has spoken, from his perspective, to the research and analysis of Ed Stetzer relating to the decline of the SBC.
It is my not so humble opinion that it would do us all well to listen to both of these men as they express their perspective positions on this serious matter.
I think that would be better than to choose up sides and pit their analysis’ of this matter against each other as did Michael Vick his Pitbulls.
The end for us doing so might just be as was Vick’s end in what he did with his dogs; Be a total loss and bring shame to the family name.
Stetzer and Yarnell are noble men of God and both are Southern Baptist to the core. We need to hear them both and learn. Then we need to act. Act, not in drawing lines in the sand, but in seeking God for a solution. We certainly need one, now,….don’t we?
cb
April 25th, 2008 at 4:29 am
It’s quite interesting to see the way this story is being commented by both sides. If I apply my systematic theology approach to this here’s what I have….
::: Baptism numbers are down across the board.
::: Attendance at conventions by under 40’s is down
::: Attendance at conventions is down
::: CR leadership is still in place
::: Policies have been put in place that are beyond both scripture and BFM
One event can be random….many related events represents a them and a movment. When we focus on protection and maintianing we lose our momentum and we lose the innovators. They’re still out there…but their moving around the SBC. They’re sending people to other schools and they’re definitely not sending through the IMB. This is the beginning of a movement.
So here are a few questions?
Shouldn’t better theology have resulted in better practices?
I know we can’t blame it on the SBC, but who leads the SBC? Pastors!
When will we see the decrease in giving….because it will happen?
April 25th, 2008 at 8:52 am
camel,
dont you think that some of the reasons for decline may be the churches that have left the sbc since the cr…you know, liberal/moderate churches?
also, people who have left the sbc, and those who choose to go to other schools due to the cr, because the people are liberal/moderate?
also, i know that many churches in tn do not complete the acp. they just dont…for whatever reason. and, the influence of calvinists calling for a more accurate membership…..and, we do have a huge number of older members and pastors thru out the sbc….they are beginning to die off.
also, could it be that sbc churches and pastors are trying to be more careful about who gets baptised in thier churches? you know, back in the 50’s and 60’s it was see how many you could get down the aisle…..some vbs’s were “get as many kids down the ailse and into the baptistry as you can” events. back in the day, i saw a lot of pastors with this mindset. we have left the easy believism that dominated a while back in the sbc, and we’ve begun to emphasize real, true faith. so, maybe pastors are really trying to be more careful, and really try to baptise only those who are truly making professions of faith. maybe?
i guess what i’m trying to say, camel, is that maybe these stats are showing some good things as well as being a cause for concern. but, one thing i know, God is sovereign, and we cant save anybody. we ought to be more focused on faithfulness than we are on numbers. agreed?
david
April 25th, 2008 at 9:25 am
We ain’t all dead yet, Vol. Save the dancin’ till a later date.
At the same time some of the things you are saying are certainly influential relating to the SBC story at this point in time, I must agree.
cb
April 25th, 2008 at 9:47 am
007:
Is it always so simple for you to say to anything–”you know, liberal/moderate churches? ”
Sure makes life simpler for you doesn’t it?–no thinking or analysis involved on your part.
April 25th, 2008 at 10:46 am
ED S needs to go somewhere else and spread his diversionary time and methods so we can present the clear unadulterated Gospel. He spends more time on ‘methodology’ and ‘meeting culture’ that could be better spent on ‘actually doing’ it.
April 25th, 2008 at 11:34 am
Having read Dr. Yarnells and Dr. Stetzer comments I was left wondering if there might be an additional factor that is influencing the church membership and baptism numbers that does not seem to have been addressed. Maybe, just maybe the field in which we are sowing the seed of the Gospel of Jesus Christ is not as fertile as it once was. Maybe, just maybe we are living in a time as described in Romans 1. There are several parallels to time and place in which we live. Maybe, just maybe God is turning them over to their depravity and the Spirit is not drawing them to Jesus.
Robert H.
April 25th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
I have a suggestion, a simple one, yet one most difficult. I suggest that instead of discussing which way to pull the sword out of the dying soldier, we simply pull the sword out. It doesn’t matter if it’s left turn or right turn. Just join in and pull. If you don’t get the illustration watch Merlin, where doctors are standing around while Lancelot has a sword in his gut, arguing about which way the sword should be pulled out.
In other words, I challenge or suggest that we all spend the weekend on our knees not telling God why this is, but asking why. Bibles open. Then humbly all repenting, and staying on our knees until an answer comes. Then follow where God leads.
April 25th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
When Guideon’s army was being whittled down, from man’s perspective, it may have been a dying army. But from God’s perspective, it was about to be an army that would see the strength of God and give God the glory for what He had done. I still contend that it is entirely possible that the “trimming” down is not necessarily a bad thing.
April 25th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
robert h.,
very good insight in comment #37. in fields that are ripe, there is a great harvest. i’ve been to honduras on mission trips twice. i was preaching about five or six times a day down there for four days. everytime i preached, 10 to 15 people would respond…wanting to be saved. i can preach the same message in the states, and everybody just stares at you….with a few amens here and there….and a lot of pat backing and “atta boy, preacher” at the front door. you are making a lot of sense, robert.
again, i say….especially to the five point calvinist crowd….God is sovereign…we cant save anybody…so, why are yall(five pointers) getting so worked up over these numbers?
david
david
April 25th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
Debbie, It is an assumption to think that the SBC is dying.
April 25th, 2008 at 5:40 pm
Jeff: And I think you have your head in the sand.
April 25th, 2008 at 6:24 pm
Then, Debbie,……if that is what you believe about Jeff; Please don’t draw lines in the “sand” with sharp instruments. You might cut Jeff’s head off.
cb
April 25th, 2008 at 8:18 pm
It took me a minute, but now I get it. Ha ha
April 25th, 2008 at 11:07 pm
Two observations:
Debbie, to say that the SBC is dying because we had a small decrease in membership borders on the ridiculous. Its like pronouncing a severe cold as a terminal illness.
I think the SBC has some issues to deal with. Dying? That is absurd.
Vol, to blame it all on the liberal/moderates is way too convenient. Of course we all want to blame it on the people we disagree with.
April 26th, 2008 at 7:45 am
dave,
i’m not blaming it all on the liberals/moderates. if you will read my comments i agree that there are many factors to these stats by stetzer. i just think that he was short sighted with some of his conclusions.
david
April 26th, 2008 at 7:56 am
dave,
if you will notice that i agree with robert h. in comment #37.
also, could it be that some pastors are starting to be more careful about who they put into the baptismal waters? are they trying to make sure that people are truly saved before baptising? i know many more pastors who feel this way than in the past.
also, could it be that some churches are purging their rolls? trying to make sure that their membership rolls more truly reflect who is really still a member? i know of some churches that have and are doing this.
also, i know of some churches that are not reporting the acp for whatever reason. i know of quite a few that are not. could that add into the equation? i think so.
also, we do have an aging population in this country. there are many people who were born in the 30’s and 40″s and 50’s who are getting older. our churches are full of them….praise God! but, they are dying off….which would hurt many stats since these people tend to be the most faithful in attending and giving.
also, a trend that we’re noticing around here are people who just show up for worship. they do not come to sunday school, nor do they want to. and, many of them just visit the churches without joining. i have several families like this in my church.
and, the most important reason we shouldnt be so stats and numbers conscious is that God is sovereign. He saves people. He is the one who puts the desire to come to church into the hearts of people. and, if people are closed to the gospel and to the truth of the Lord…..then, we will show decline. as robert h. said, and i agree with….maybe our nation is becoming more gospel hardened. maybe they’re not as open to the gospel as they used to be.
david
April 26th, 2008 at 11:40 am
Vol, I was only trying to make a point, using your comment and Debbie’s as a template.
My point is this: we are all trying to (in my opinion) spin the data to fit our preconceived ideas.
Some, who think the SBC is great just as it is, have downplayed the data and tried to show it is not really serious.
Those with a more critical and negative view of the SBC (Debbie and others) will use this to say, “The Sky is Falling” and to say that if we do not adopt their view, the end is near.
Reformers will blame the Baptist Identity folks. The Baptist Identity folks will blame the reformers, or the CBF, or whomever. (Sorry for using labels – they make brevity easier).
My point is that we need to examine the data rationally and openly. Debbie wants to use the data to support an extremist pessimism about the SBC. You have tried, I think it is fair to say, to downplay the seriousness of the data, at least to some degree.
I think the data demonstrates a problem. The sky may not be falling. We may not be at a Code Blue as Debbie would like to believe, but we do have a problem, which needs to be addressed.
Does that make sense?
April 26th, 2008 at 11:42 am
And, David, I hope some of the things you said in your previous comment are true. They should be. But do they explain the data? I don’t know.
I suspect that there is more to it than that, although the issues you delineate may explain some of the data.
April 26th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
All,
I posted this at my site in response to Strider who offered a good read in his response to my post, reflective of a deep passion for the SBC.
It is one dimension of the discussion I do not think has been mentioned. I offer it here not because I think it is so profound that you need to consider it.
Rather it is a bit of personal testimony and how I view the entire genre of statistical analysis. Statistics are good but, like fresh bread, stats must stay in the oven long enough to nicely bake before serving…
Strider,
Thanks. I agree with you about the discussion that needs to take place. The question though, it seems to me, should be “Is the SBC declining?” I frankly don’t know.
The stats thus far cannot prove we are; instead they only suggest we may be. I am open to that, once we digest the statistics.
Pertaining to the stats, my skepticism here in not new. I have not been a particular advocate of our “studies”.
What may very well be worst of all, in my view, pertaining to the scenario at Lifeway, has not yet been discussed as I know about:
Stetzer, who I am confident is a capable statistician, is both pollster and prophet. That’s like the guys in the lab doing my blood work at night and then slicing me open on the operating table the next day.
Let me show you what I mean.
The Evangelical Church has listened to pollster, George Barna, virtually my entire ministry.
I first read his “Frog in a Kettle” in my first Church as a young pastor after ordering it from those stacks of 50 Index Cards we used get in the mail at the Church.
Nothing wrong in polling in and of itself. And, I’m sure we learned a lot about ourselves from his ceaseless crunching of numbers among Church folk.
Somewhere, however, Barna morphed from pollster to prophet and we started listening to him as an authoritative voice about what the Church ought to do and ought to be.
I awakened to this as I was reading one of his many books I have in my library. It was, of course, about Leadership, Leadership, Leadership, what he’s preached for two decades till finally throwing up his hands in disgust “Nobody will listen to me!”.
In that book, he was pontificating about the uselessness of seminary education where men are taught Greek, Hebrew, theology, etc to basically teach and preach. He mentioned that those guys are needed in the Church but not as the Senior Pastor.
The one non-negotiable he said was necessary for a Senior Pastor was leadership. That was it. Everything else? Just bells and whistles.
My mind immediately raced toward the qualifications Paul gave to Timothy where, of course, the gift of leadership is absent but the gift of teaching beams brightly enough to bust one eyeballs.
Upon closing his book, I closed my eyes, and said something like
I have read Barna since but I have not again read him as a prophet but for what he is–a pollster.
And, I mean no disrespect to Stetzer. However, I prefer he do just the lab work, deliver the results and let others determine the diagnosis. In the future, this would perhaps save us Southern Baptists from ourselves!
Sorry, Strider. I didn’t mean to grandstand. But no one has yet to address this to my knowledge. And I thought today was a good day to say such.
Grace. With that, I am…
Peter
April 26th, 2008 at 1:26 pm
Brother Dave Miller,
I must confess that you make some excellent points. I believe you speak well when you say, I think the data demonstrates a problem. The sky may not be falling. We may not be at a Code Blue… but we do have a problem, which needs to be addressed. I believe it is more than one problem and I believe all who began this blog agrees that the SBC is not perfect. We all believe that change must be made and not one of us has every stated differently.
My concern lies with a drop in #’s that those doing the research have stated in the past are not that clear of a indicator. We have all been told that the 16 million # is not all that clear and we should not depend on that #. Now we have a drop in that number and we are told that the SBC is now officially in decline.
I am concerned about the Baptismal #’s being down. I certainly wish I had the right answer as to why they have dropped. I believe that the reason for their dropping is somewhere between the advocating of evangelism in churches and practice of evangelism in churches. Exactly where and how, I do not know, but I am not ready to buy wholesale into Dr. Stetzer’s prescription.
Blessings,
Tim
April 26th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
Maybe the sky is falling. Maybe the sky is not falling.
There are still some things that are true either way.
1.We actually have some serious problems in the SBC. Surely reading either/both Stetzer or Yarnell will reveal that to be true.
2. Danny Akin is right. We all need to seek God with repentant hearts.
3. Alvin Reid is right. We all need to practice true evangelism and much more of it.
Whether the sky is falling or not falling may not be the point. The point may be that we all must seek to faithful to the purpose for which we are here. We are here of the gospel and for the gospel.
We must be faithful to the gospel in life-style and proclamation. There is nothing else.
cb
April 26th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
I agree with you CB.. that’s it bottom line anywhere.
You can have sports as your main goal, or you can have the gospel. You can have TV as your main orientation in life, or you caqn have the gospel.
You can have a selfish life or you can have an evangelisic life… and the choice is yours.
Steve
April 26th, 2008 at 5:58 pm
I think the numbers are a little more discouraging than just a one-year decline, which might be an anomaly.
But, over the last 20 years or so, any gains we have had in membership is minimal. We have been essentially plateaued for well over a decade, close to 2.
That is a time when US population has continued to grow.
I was told by my state office once that if you take away ethnic church ministries (and thank God for them) the anglo SBC church has been plateaued or declining for some time.
If I gave the solution, it would tend to be self-serving. “If people just agreed with me more, all would be well.”
But there should be no doubt, in my mind, that we have a systemic issue as a convention that needs to be addressed.
April 27th, 2008 at 12:32 am
David Miller: Then I also think you have your head in the sand. I would say 10 million missing is dying or at least heading in that direction. There may be 3 million for all we know once we get accurate reporting. Not to realize that this is serious is doing a disfavor. I stand by what I have said and what I have been saying for almost three years. I have seen churches die and although this is bigger than just one church the road is still the same. Heed it don\’t heed it, but don\’t say you haven’t been warned. This is more than a head cold, that I can assure you.
April 27th, 2008 at 12:34 am
What does the Bible say about a house divided?
April 27th, 2008 at 10:42 am
Debbie, I believe your harsh analysis is sourced in your anger and disdain for Paige Patterson and other conservative leaders of the denomination, rather than a reasoned analysis of facts.
The numbers indicate a problem we should examine, analyse and respond to.
To call them the death knell of a denomination is the result of passion and anger, not reason.
At least, that is my opinion,
Dave
April 27th, 2008 at 10:56 am
Debbie,
I am not really looking for a fight, but your attitude kind of bothers me. If I understand you, anyone who does not accept your negative view has their head in the sand and is ignoring the warning signs.
I think our house is divided because people demand that everyone agree with them or be condemned – pretty much what you tend to do.
April 27th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
Wow?! How do you get a Baptist to jump on your attitude? Sign in as a woman. Ta daa!
I see no one has echoed Dr. Yarnell on his disbelief that our parameters of cooperation have not been narrowed. Of course, they have. To double-check, go to SWTBS or the IMB and talk of ppl. Step down, next case.
April 27th, 2008 at 4:00 pm
Debbie’s view reminds me of a man in my church who when he goes to the hospital in critical condition. Every body in the church claims he will not make it out again.
His vital signs look bad, but guess what he keeps rallying and pulling thru.
Sadly, I almost catch a hint of gleam in your posts that the SBC is hurting.
April 27th, 2008 at 8:04 pm
Peter,
With regard to your comment (#50). With respect, comparing Stetzer and Barna is to compare apples with oranges. Your analysis of Barna is, to a large degree, spot-on because he is a statistician alone. Stetzer however, is not just a statistician. In Ed we in the SBC have the privilege of both a statistician AND missiologist. I’ve known Ed for many years and for you, or anyone else, to suggest that he is not qualified to analyze his own data simply demonstrates that you do not know him.
So in that sense, Ed is more than qualified, both to run the lab, AND to offer diagnosis. I will concede that his diagnosis could be wrong (just as yours, Malcom’s, Barber’s etc could be wrong) but your suggestion that he simply “move out of the way and let the ‘real scholars’ handle the genuine analysis” simply doesn’t hold water.
To all, I agree with Dave Miller, C.B. Scott and others when they say that the implications of the data are yet to be determined. The quick run to repective “sides” and drawing lines in the sand is to me, not a good sign for us.
April 27th, 2008 at 11:27 pm
Dave: You have read me correctly in this case. Is it terminal? I don’t want to think so. Could it be if we keep doing what we are doing? Yes. How do I know? Let me show you some empty buildings where this infighting kept occurring and occurring. Yes, I am saying that if you do not see this it could be very bad. If you do not agree with me on this one thing, it’s sticking a head in the sand. I do not believe we are the second largest denomination. That may have been true once, but I do not believe it is true any longer. We now have a big bark in the political world but no bite to back it up. I am sorry if I sound angry, I am frustrated as this warning as been gonging for several years and has gone unheeded.
Say the sky is not falling, it just looks as if it is. We should be seeking God’s face collectively to see where and how he wants us to proceed. Not making another program, step or plan until we do. Yes I say if one doesn’t see this is serious, I have not much tolerance. Sorry but after three years that’s where I am at.
April 27th, 2008 at 11:32 pm
Jeff: Let me put it to you this way. SWBTS is planning on building a chapel they do not need and naming a building after Richard Land. Now I read where we will have a hall of fame with honors going to God? No. To men who the SBC feels are worthy. Now you tell me. We say we are people of the Bible, the CR brought back inerrancy and we are going down this road.
April 28th, 2008 at 7:04 am
Debbie, I don’t get your response what does that have to do with the stats Ed has given. But I will respond:
-1) Who says they don’t need a chapel? You, what gives you the right to determine what they need?
-2) I don’t care much for naming buildings after men or having the Hall of Fame, but what is your point.
Jeff
April 28th, 2008 at 7:38 am
Joel,
Hello. Glad to meet you. And, thank you for your response, my brother. Know I concede there may be significant differences between Stetzer and Barna albeit Barna is no new comer to Biblical teaching himself.
Nor did I suggest he was–a newcomer, that is. In fact, one could point to a number of Biblical insights he has about leadership in general. My final break was that he simply went hermeneutically bananas with it. Hence, turning over the prophetic mantle to Barna who’s better at polls than preaching was a mistake we made. I think we firmly agree on that.
As for your counter to my statement about Stetzer, you write:
Just a couple of rejoinders if I may. First, I have made no diagnosis. Consistently, I lament any diagnosis offered is much too early. Indeed that may be the strongest point I have made pertaining to Stetzer himself, who offers up his own homemade apple pie for us to enjoy. It’s simply too early to tell.
Thus, I am precisely at the same place as you guys and say the Amen with you when you conclude: "…I agree with Dave Miller, C.B. Scott and others when they say that the implications of the data are yet to be determined".
Secondly, I have to ask, Joel, about "[my] suggestion that he simply “move out of the way and let the ‘real scholars’ handle the genuine analysis” is precisely where in this present comment thread or elsewhere, my brother? I think you may be mistaken about my words.
I go on record here–though I am almost embarrassed, I have to say, given I am old & gray by blogging standards–to boldly and loudly proclaim I haven’t a papal hair on my head and my Momma didn’t birth me in Rome. Let the "real scholars" do it? I don’t think so anymore than preachers ought to "get out of the way" and let the "real "scholars" preach the truth to Church.
I love proven tradition and possess a profound respect for community interpretation of our faith as our confessional history offers. But to embrace "getting out of the way" and handing over to the "real scholars" the microphone is not my idea of the so-called "Baptist Identity", a club in which I have been accused of being a charter member. Nor is it either Biblical or sober.
I pen again what I penned earlier:
In short, it would be much much better if he had given the digits without the diagnosis. Ponder the scenario had Ed Stetzer come out with very same numbers but built a counter case. I’d bet a cup of Starbucks, howls of protest would have come from our sister Debbie’s direction. Interesting to consider.
Now, that’s my view, Joel. And, if it makes no sense or others have an alternative perspective, I think that’s great.
Grace to you, my brother. I trust your day well.
With that, I am…
Peter
April 28th, 2008 at 7:59 am
Thanks Peter. I accept your interpretation of your own words.
Hopefully you understand my prior confusion in observing your comparison of Stetzer and Barna. You and I would agree that Barna has gone “hermaneutically bananas” (I like that phrase!), particularly in relation to his eccleciology. The mention of these two names (STetzer and Barna) together is, again, to compare apples and oranges. Since Ed specializes in both research AND reserach analysis (and to be honest, any of us with a research doctorate should have abilities in both, otherwise, how could we have graduated?) as well as being a classically trained missiologist, we still disagree on your point that he stick to “lab work.” In short, I’m with you that we need to give this some time, and allow others to speak, I just think Ed should be able to speak to his own work, and I’ll admit my bias toward his conclusions as the right ones.
I apologize if I read too much into your prior comment. Praying that your day is blessed as well.
April 28th, 2008 at 8:38 am
Joel,
Thanks Joel. No problem. Sometimes I not only don\’t understand myself, I don\’t even agree with myself when I do!
And, of course, no need for apology. Your challenge forced me to reconsider what I\’d penned and moved us toward greater clarity with each other, a grand accomplishment in itself.
With only minor differences as we contemplate this issue, both of us, nevertheless, possess the same position–let\’s take the present statistics seriously but offer our proposed solutions soberly.
With that, I am…
Peter
April 28th, 2008 at 8:27 pm
bottom line is pastors are not setting the example, paint it how you want it but that is the issue. we must lead by example. nothing more nothing less
April 28th, 2008 at 9:08 pm
Brother Brian,
You are correct, the bottom line is that pastors are not setting the example.
Brother Bart Barber on his blog challenged all bloggers to a certain criteria before blogging. You can read about it here. I told him that I would not go for ten, but count me in for three. Tonight I shared the gospel with 5 people and two gave their hearts to Jesus Christ.
Let’s just all get on the ball personally witnessing to people about Jesus that are out there. Oh, this was a knock on a door as a result of a Block Party sponsored at the church on April 19. The home we went to, came to the block party and decided to go to church the next Sunday Night. The man was brought up Catholic and the lady was raised in a Church of God. They decided that they did not want to go to a Baptist church for who knows why and went to a Presbyterian church. The Presbyterian church did not have a Sunday evening service, but our traditional Southern Baptist church still believes that the Sunday evening service is a part of honoring our Lord on the day of rest. As a result of their attendance in the sunday evening service my chairman of Deacons and myself visited tonight and presented the Gospel. My Chairman of Deacons sat there tonight and watched his pastor present the plan of salvation to this family and the dad and 10-year-old daughter were gloriously saved. The mom, knew she was saved but confessed to straying. She prayed a prayer of re-surender based on 1 John 1:9. They are coming forward Sunday AM. I am following up this week and encouraging them in their walk.
All of this because Dr. Bart Barber challenged the bloggers to commit not to write another post until they shared the gospel with lost people before they posted a serious post on their blog. Well, I can now post another blog post.
But most of all, God has brought two more into His Kingdom. To Him be Glory and Honor.
Blessings,
Tim
April 28th, 2008 at 9:13 pm
Tim,
That is awesome!
Sola Gratia!
April 28th, 2008 at 10:12 pm
[...] Wes Kenney quotes the comments of Dr. Malcolm Yarnell’s counter point to Stetzer’s blog post Declining Membership [...]
April 29th, 2008 at 1:08 am
Jeff: I believe my point is clear, but I’ll clarify for you. Our heart as a denomination is not in the right place. In my opinion it hasn’t been for quite some time. I believe we may be reaping what has been sowed.
April 29th, 2008 at 9:04 am
Debbie,
Denominations don’t have hearts. People have hearts. What you are saying is that the people of this denomination do not have their hearts right with God.
In that case, the answer is for each of us, individually, to get our hearts right and our priorities in order.
Humility and repentance, not arrogance and condemnation, are the solution.
April 29th, 2008 at 11:22 am
What does that have to do with a chapel?
April 29th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
jeff t,
i guess chapels dont have hearts, either.
david